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Table 3 Results of JPR in the study indicators trends

From: Impacts of economic sanctions on population health and health system: a study at national and sub-national levels from 2000 to 2020 in Iran

Row

Indicators1

Cp (95% credible interval) 2

β02-

β01 (95% credible interval) 3

β12 (95% credible interval) 4

1

GDP (Million_IRR)(log)

2003.03(2003.00, 2003.08)

0.43 (0.33, 0.55)

0.34 (0.21, 0.50)

2

Inflation rate (%)

2,013.93 ( 2011.42, 15.98)

-0.32 (-0.49, -0.16)

0.01 (-0.01, 0.05)

3

Health inflation rate (%)

2013.67(2012.07, 015.61)

-0.51 (-0.60, − 0.42)

0.03 (0.01, 0.04)

4

Current health expenditure (Million IRR)

2001.57(2001.00, 2002.21)

0.16 (-0.01, 0.31)

0.21 (0.19, 0.24)

5

Household health expenditure (%)

2010.50 (2010.05–2011.00)

0.34 (0.15, 0.55)

0.03 (-0.00, 0.05)

6

Out of Pocket (OOP) (%)

2011.57 (2006.35, 2014.00)

-0.12 (-0.36, 0.16)

-0.06 (-0.11, 0.01)

7

Share of household expenditure on food (%)

2003.76(2003.00,2005.81)

-0.06 (-0.12, 0.00)

-0.06 (-0.08, -0.05)

8

Total hospital beds

2003.05(2003.00, 2003.14)

0.56 (0.46, 0.67)

0.33 (0.26, 0.42)

9

Neonatal Mortality (NMR)

2,013.40 (2012.34, 2014.56)

0.53 (0.37, 0.68)

0.00 (-0.03, 0.05)

10

Under-five mortality rate

2008.55(2006.00, 2010.69)

-0.05 (-0.29, 0.17)

0.00 (-0.05, 0.05)

11

Maternal mortality ratio (MMR)

2008.70 (2003.00, 2018.89)

-0.16 (-0.36, 0.04)

0.00 (-0.02, 0.02)

12

Cardiovascular disease mortality rate

2008.58 (2006.00, 2011.60)

0.08 (-0.20, 0.36)

-0.01 (-0.06, 0.04)

13

Hypertension mortality rate

2011.02 (2009.90, 2012.41)

-0.70 (-0.89, -0.54)

0.04 (0.01, 0.07)

14

Myocardial infraction mortality rate

2011.15 (2006.00, 2016.38)

0.34 (0.09, 0.59)

-0.02 (-0.05, 0.03)

15

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) mortality rate

2006.22 (2006.00, 2006.50)

-0.34 (-0.44, -0.27)

0.09 (0.08, 0.11)

16

Diabetes mortality rate

2007.01 (2006.002008.65)

-0.36 (-0.53, -0.21)

0.10 (0.09, 0.12)

17

Multiple sclerosis mortality rate

2011.13 (2009.89, 2012.70)

-0.65 (-0.97, -0.34)

0.05 (0.00, 0.09)

18

Thalassemia mortality rate

2007.40(2006.03, 2008.77)

0.52 (0.32, 0.74)

-0.13 (-0.15, -0.10)

19

Stroke mortality rate

2010.64(2006.00, 2015.22)

0.20 (-0.17, 0.55)

0.03 (-0.01, 0.07)

20

Brain tumor mortality rate

2007.04(2006.00, 2008.79)

-0.73 (-0.86, -0.61)

0.05 (0.04, 0.07)

21

Leukemia mortality rate

2010.38 (2006.00, 2015.09)

0.02 (-0.78, 0.77)

0.02 (-0.02, 0.07)

22

Lung cancer

2007.50 )2006.00, 2009.37)

0.03 (-0.34,0.40)

-0.011 (-0.148, 0.13)

23

Colorectal cancer mortality rate

2006.16 (2006.00,2006.54)

0.98 (0.83, 1.14)

0.12 (0.106, 0.14)

24

Gastric cancer mortality rate

2006.27 (2006.00, 2008.35)

0.63 (0.47, 0.78(

0.39 (0.087 0.59)

25

Prostate cancer mortality rate

2010.746 ( 2010.19, 2011.24)

0.47 (0.37, 0.56)

0.039 (0.025, 0.053)

26

Breast cancer mortality rate

2006.27 (2006.00,2008.27)

0.56 (0.41, 0.70)

0.087 (0.077, 0.097)

27

Total cancer mortality rate

2007.46(2006.20, 2009.08)

-0.25 (-0.37, -0.16)

1.05 )0.03, 0.06)

  1. 1. The logarithm of indices was used to perform these statistical analyses
  2. 2. “Cp” shows the join point of each indicator, when the indicator has undergone a specific change (latency time). Based on our hypothesis (Cp > 2009), the changes before 2009 were not due to sanctions
  3. 3. “β_01” and “β_02” are the average of indicators before and after Cp. Based on the study hypotheses (Cp > 2009, β_02-β_01 > 0), indicators that revealed a significant change after the sanctions are those with Cp > 2009, and the range (CIs of \(\:{{\upbeta\:}}_{02}-{{\upbeta\:}}_{01})\:\)does not include zero. If both the upper and lower limits are positive, it was concluded that the average of the examined indicators significantly increased after Cp
  4. 4. “β_12” indicates the average change in the indicators after Cp per year; the rate of change of the indicator, showing the extent of increase or decrease in each time unit following Cp. According to our hypothesis (β_12 > 0), if Cp does not include the upper and lower bounds of zero, it can be stated that the examined indicators follow an upward trend after the Cp
  5. .The “Unemployment rate (%)” was omitted because we could not find reliable data at the provincial level
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Globalization and Health

ISSN: 1744-8603