Table 5 Policy specifications and effect sizes used in the replication of the Abridged SimSmoke model

Protecting (P): Smoke-free air laws (effects are additive over policies)

 Indoor workplaces:

smoke free

Ban in all indoor workplaces

6% distributed by a proportional allocation

1.25

1.5

yes

yes

(-50%, + 50%)

 Restaurants: smoke free

Ban in all indoor restaurants

2%

1.25

1.5

yes

yes

(-50%, + 50%)

 Pubs and bars: smoke free

Ban in all indoor pubs and bars

1%

1.25

1.5

yes

yes

(-50%, + 50%)

 Other indoor places

Ban in all other public places

1%

1.25

1.5

yes

yes

(-50%, + 50%)

 Compliance

Ranking out of 10 scaled to continuous value between 0 and 1 and averaged over the two time periods

25% of the effect depends on the ratio of compliance

 Publicity

Based on tobacco control funding (US$) per capita. Set at high (1), medium (0.75) and low (0.5)

25% of effect depends on publicity

Offering (O): Cessation services (effects are additive over policies)

 Quit line

If available. Quit line assumed operating active

0.75%

2.5

1.5

yes

no

(-50%, + 50%)

 Availability of Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT)

If NRT provided by general store or pharmacy w/ Rx = 1

If NRT is provided by general store or pharmacy (no Rx required) = 2

1% if score of 2

2.5

1.5

yes

no

(-50%, + 50%)

 Provision of treatments

By types of facility: Available in some or most facilities and cost covered as either partial or fully to attain the effect size

2.25% distributed by a

proportional allocation

2.5

1.5

yes

no

(-50%, + 50%)

 Publicity

Based on tobacco control funding ($) per capita. Set at high (1), medium (0.75) andlow (0.5)

Set in US dollars and 15 years plus population

Warning (W): Health warnings (first four categories are mutually exclusive)

 Complete health warnings

Large warnings with all appropriate characteristics. Score = 5

4.0%

2

2

no

no

(-50%, + 50%)

 Strong health warnings

Medium size warnings with all appropriate characteristics or large warnings missing some appropriate characteristics. Score = 4

2.0%

2

2

no

no

(-50%, + 50%)

 Medium health warnings

Medium size warnings missing some or many appropriate characteristics or large warnings missing many appropriate characteristics. Score = 3

1.0%

2

2

no

no

(-50%, + 50%)

 Low health warnings

No warning or small warnings. Score = 2

0%

2

2

no

no

(-50%, + 50%)

Enforcing (E): Bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship (TAPS) (first four categories are mutually exclusive)

 Complete ban on TAPS

Ban on all forms of direct and/or indirect advertising (or at least 90% of the population covered by complete subnational bans). Score = 5

5%

1.3

2

no

no

(-50%, + 50%)

 Strong ban on TAPS

Ban on national television, radio and print media as well as on some but not all other forms of direct and/or indirect advertising. Score = 4

3%

1.3

2

no

no

(-50%, + 50%)

 Medium ban on TAPS

Ban on national television, radio and print media only. Score = 3

1%

1.3

2

no

no

(-50%, + 50%)

 Absence of ban on TAPS

Complete absence of ban, or ban that does not cover national television, radio and print media, Score = 2

0%

1.3

2

no

no

 Compliance

Ranking out of 10 standardised to a continuous value between 0 and 1 and averaged over the two time periods

50% of the effect depends on the ratio of compliance

no

no

Raising (R): Raise cigarette taxes

 Increase in retail price of cigarettes due to taxes

Cigarette price in local currency and adjusted by inflation. Smoking prevalence price elasticities applied to % change in inflation-adjusted price

Price elasticities based HICs^e (0.15) or LMICs^e (0.20)

2

no

no

no

(-50%, + 50%)